Despite the apparent divergence, China and South Korea officially shared similar priorities regarding North Korea, said Leif-Eric Easley, an international studies professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
These included avoiding war, maintaining stability, calling for denuclearisation, offering humanitarian assistance, and encouraging economic reforms.
South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin called on China to play a “constructive role” in curbing the North’s threats, during a meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of an Asean meeting in Jakarta last Friday.
“Seoul does not expect Beijing to solve the North Korea problem,” Easley said, adding that it instead hoped China would uphold its responsibilities as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
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North Korea launches its longest ICBM test flight, raising alarm in the West
North Korea launches its longest ICBM test flight, raising alarm in the West
Pyongyang had on July 12 successfully tested the Hwasong-18, a new type of solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile that was first fired in April, state media said.
North Korea on Wednesday also launched two ballistic missiles into its eastern sea, just hours after a US nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine arrived at a South Korean port for the first time in four decades, according to the Japanese and South Korean militaries.
Alexander M. Hynd, non-resident James A. Kelly Korea fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, said China had always acted in line with its interests when it came to North Korea, especially in its preference for stability and maintenance of the status quo.
This often meant sheltering North Korea from the full impact of international sanctions, Hynd said, adding that Beijing was likely to continue playing a role in maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula.
“Beijing is unlikely to view the current diplomatic tensions with Seoul as sufficient reason to embolden North Korea to the extent of provoking a new peninsula security crisis,” Hynd said.
Both countries were, however, critical of each other’s actions, Easley said, pointing to China’s disapproval of South Korea’s military modernisation and defence exercises to counter the North’s growing nuclear and missile threats, while Seoul claimed Beijing enabled Pyongyang in violating international norms.
“The Yoon administration has implied that if China’s leaders do not want South Korea doing more with the US and Japan for regional security, they should stop obstructing Security Council action on North Korea and implement UN sanctions,” Easley said.
Seong-Hyon Lee, senior fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, said North Korea-China ties were at their closest since Kim Jong-un became leader in 2011, noting that new Chinese ambassador Wang Yajun had met nearly all the top Pyongyang officials following his appointment in April.
This year is also the 70th anniversary of the armistice marking the end of Korean war hostilities, so Pyongyang and Beijing are likely to publicly demonstrate solidarity and friendship, according to Lee.
North Korea was also seen to be aligning itself with China amid the Sino-US rivalry, Lee said, pointing to the North Korean state media describing the recent visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China as “a disgraceful begging trip”.
“Given these dynamics, China cannot afford to risk alienating North Korea, particularly this year,” Lee said. “Instead, it is likely to deepen its relations with North Korea as a countermeasure to the strengthening alliances between the US, South Korea, and Japan.”
North Korea fires two missiles after US submarine arrives in South Korea
In recent months, the US has shored up ties with Japan by strengthening security and space cooperation, and with South Korea through a US commitment and reassurance to boost extended deterrence against Pyongyang.
The Nuclear Consultative Group initiative between Washington and Seoul is aimed at addressing nuclear contingencies and providing greater transparency on plans to counter North Korea’s growing threat.
Navies from the US, Japan and South Korea last weekend held a rare joint missile defence exercise in the Sea of Japan.
US President Joe Biden is also expected to meet Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next month at Camp David in Maryland, according to South Korea’s presidential office on Thursday.
Lee said while China continued to “tolerate North Korean missile aggression without condemnation”, the potential for improvement in Beijing-Seoul ties remained “limited”.
“The once robust trade relationship that served as the foundation of South Korea-China ties is unravelling,” Lee said, noting that the shift would persist into the foreseeable future. “Consequently, both sides have less incentive to make efforts to alleviate tensions as they have in the past.”
Last year, for the first time in almost two decades, South Korea exported more goods to the US than to China, with exports to China falling almost 10 per cent to US$122 billion between 2021 and 2022, according to last month’s Bank of Korea data.
Goods exports to the US rose more than 22 per cent over the same period to US$139 billion.
However, Pacific Forum’s Hynd said China-South Korea reconciliation was still possible as Beijing saw Seoul as “a potential weak link” in the US alliance system rather than a security threat.
South Korea’s strong economic ties with China meant it had for years been unwilling to overtly move to the US sphere of influence or join groups seen as countering Beijing.
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